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As pandemic raises risk, cap rates ‘to go up’: Colliers

4 years ago

The severity of COVID-19’s impact on the Canadian commercial real estate market remains unknown as the situation unfolds and forecasts are adjusted. As an industry benchmark, one of the most pressing questions is what it means for cap rates.

Co-working spaces have been a growing part of the Canadian office market in recent years, with established providers expanding and new companies entering the field to offer flex work solutions. However, will that growth continue following the pandemic?

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Ontario municipalities, already reeling financially from COVID-19, are balking at a provincial government plan to cap the payments they receive from real estate developers for parks and other public improvements.

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RioCan REIT (REI-UN-T) today announced its plans to enhance the shopping experience at its centres across Canada by launching RioCan Curbside Collect, a safe and convenient way for retail tenants and consumers to transact as businesses re-open.

Yardi - Vendor Cafe

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It will be 2022 before a “new normal” takes hold in the property market, said Michael Cooper, Dream Office REIT (D-UN-T) CEO and Dream Unlimited president. “I’m planning for tough, tough times ahead, just because I think it’s prudent,” Cooper said.

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The post-pandemic workplace could include greater distance between desks, mandatory masks, shift work and lineups to take crowd-free elevators or get a temperature check, according to people who design and lay out offices for a living.

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How many employees can you fit in a post-pandemic elevator? That’s what companies around the world are trying to determine, as many plot a return to the skyscrapers hollowed out by the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

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VIDEO: Peter Norman, vice-president and chief economist at Altus Group, talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about the housing sector amidst COVID-19.

Real Estate Webinars

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Companies that were poised for online retail have been the big winners of the COVID-19 pandemic and Kitchener-Waterloo will rebound strongly, says Mitchell Blaine, an industrial broker with CBRE’s Waterloo Region office and the senior vice-president of the company.

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Business owners on Granville Island fall through a crack in Ottawa’s COVID-19 business assistance. Because the federal government owns the land, its major commercial property operators aren’t eligible to offer their tenants help under the federal commercial rent assistance program.

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Commercial tenants are expected to have a stronger hand when dealing with landlords after fashion retailers and malls reopen following closures aimed at slowing the spread of COVID-19. Industry observers foresee a spate of permanent closures as retailers declare bankruptcy.

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Tim Sanderson, JLL’s national retail lead, has been working in the industry for more than 30 years and says he’s never seen malls in such dire financial straits. And, he adds, it is likely to get worse before it gets better.

DC & Associates

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Ottawa’s Trillium Line O-Train is expected to be offline for the next two years as construction began Sunday on a $1.6-billion, 16-kilometre extension. Eight new stations will be built, and existing stations will be expanded to accommodate longer trains.

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J. Crew Group Inc. filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday, adding to an array of brick-and-mortar retailers pushed to the brink by widespread store closures in response to the coronavirus pandemic.

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The world’s priciest property market has lost its most important source of inbound investment. Mainland Chinese buyers are shying away from real estate in Hong Kong as COVID-19 clouds the economic outlook and keeps investors from traveling to the city.

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China announced plans on Thursday to create a public market for REITs, aiming to channel personal savings and private capital into infrastructure projects without overstretching already debt-laden local governments. Until now China has only allowed privately sold quasi-REITs.

Harbour Equity

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Momentum Event Group CEO Ben Greenzweig is itching to move his wife and three kids to either North Carolina or South Carolina from the New York City suburbs in Westchester County, a plan that may get accelerated due to COVID-19.

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The Greater Ottawa Home Builders’ Association (GOHBA) had one of the city’s most prominent planning firms, Fotenn, rough the building masses in communities that, according to the firm, would be required to satisfy a city-suggested intensification target.

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Beaverbrook Communities of Edmonton has beaten out eight finalists to win the prestigious Global Royal Town Planning Institute (RTPI) International Award for Planning Excellence. It won for its Sustainability Plaza at the Hills of Charlesworth subdivision in southeast Edmonton.

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The combined impact of COVID-19 and the energy sector slide is causing housing demand in the Calgary market to fall at a significant pace. “Demand is also falling faster than supply,” said Calgary Real Estate Board chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

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